We’re seven races into the 2022 Formula 1 season, which is shaping up to (potentially) have three drivers vie for the World Championship title.
Max Verstappen, the 2021 world champion and lead Red Bull Racing driver, currently leads the driver’s championship race with 125 points. Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc is only nine points behind with 116, while Sergio Perez (110 points) has climbed back into the hunt following his victory at Monaco.
After Perez, there’s a sizable drop-off in the current standings. Mercedes newcomer George Russell sits on 84 points, a single point ahead of Carlos Sainz of Ferrari. Rounding out the top-six is seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton, who has accumulated only 50 points through seven grand prix’s.
Here are the current odds to win the driver’s World Championship. Odds come courtesy of BetMGM and are subject to change.
| Driver | World Championship Odds |
|---|---|
| Max Verstappen (125 points) | -135 |
| Charles Leclerc (116 points) | +150 |
| George Russell (84 points) | +1600 |
| Lewis Hamilton (50 points) | +2500 |
| Sergio Perez (110 points) | +2500 |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. (83 points) | +4000 |
| Lando Norris (48 points) | +50000 |
| Fernando Alonso (10 points) | +100000 |
| Daniel Ricciardo (11 points) | +100000 |
| Valtteri Bottas (40 points) | +100000 |
| Kevin Magnussen (15 points) | +100000 |
| Esteban Ocon (30 points) | +150000 |
| Yuki Tsunoda (11 points) | +200000 |
| Sebastian Vettel (5 points) | +250000 |
| Pierre Gasly (6 points) | +250000 |
| Mick Schumacher (0 points) | +250000 |
| Alex Albon (3 points) | +300000 |
| Lance Stroll (2 points) | +400000 |
| Nicholas Latifi (0 points) | +400000 |
| Guanyu Zhou (1 point) | +400000 |
Formula 1 Driver’s Championship Betting Analysis
I’ll begin with this – the value is all gone on both Verstappen and Leclerc.
Although I think it’s likely one of those two drivers will eventually win the world championship, I’m not about to lay a price with Verstappen or take a steeply discounted price with Leclerc, who opened the season at almost +700 to win the driver’s championship.
That said, if you asked me to bet one of those two drivers today, I would take the plus-money with Leclerc. There are a few upcoming races – Azerbaijan, France, Belgium, and Singapore come to mind – that will give a Ferrari car quicker around tight corners an edge over Red Bull. If all goes right for Leclerc in those races, he could reclaim the lead to the point you could bet both Verstappen and Leclerc in plus-money to guarantee a profit.
Elsewhere, I’m intrigued by the price of Sergio Perez, but don’t believe there’s any harm in waiting a few weeks. Although he won a few weeks back in Monaco, I wonder if that was Red Bull’s way of making up for exercising team orders in favor of Verstappen in Barcelona. Time will tell whether that was the case.
Additionally, they’ll never say it out loud, but Red Bull wants Verstappen to win the driver’s championship if possible. That said, Perez has proven remarkably consistent to date — following a DNF in Bahrain, he’s finished 4-2-2-4-2-1 in his last six grand prix’s. He’ll need more victories if he hopes to challenge for the world champion title, but I believe there’s an implied probability edge with Perez and, under the right circumstances, would play him at +1500 or better.
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As for the longshots, I see nothing worth betting today, but there’s one driver worth tracking over the next few races.
That’s Lando Norris, who has proven remarkably volatile to date this season. He managed a podium at Imola and has finished inside the points in five of his last six races. However, he’s yet to seriously challenge Verstappen and Leclerc for a race victory. That could change in the next few weeks at both Silverstone (Norris’s home grand prix) and Monza, where the McLaren driver notched a P2 finish last season.
If Norris can win a race soon, he may be worth considering from a longshot perspective. But until that occurs, he’s not worth your money.
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